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注意！外贸形势开始承压！出口高增速的拐点已现，中国的机会在哪里？Notice! The foreign trade situation has begun to come under pressure! The inflection point of high export growth has come, where are the opportunities for China?
On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's CPI in August increased by 2.5% year-on-year, compared with the expected 2.8%, and the previous value was 2.7%; the PPI in August increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared with the expected 3.2%, and the previous value was 4.2%. Both the data growth rates have dropped, which shows that my country's economic situation is constantly improving, so what is the situation of my country's foreign trade?
The foreign trade situation has begun to come under pressure
The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that the epidemic in Yiwu in August was superimposed by the disturbance of factors such as power cuts in some areas, and the growth rate of exports slowed down significantly. The above factors all improved in September, and it is expected that the export growth rate may rebound slightly in September. The manufacturing PMI of China's major trading partners continues to be in a downward channel, and it is expected that China's exports will also trend down.
However, in the context of the continuous disturbance of overseas energy issues, the export substitution effect of some industrial products in China may be further strengthened, and there is still a certain support for exports. The subsequent downward shift of the domestic export growth rate will also be gradual and slow.
Some people believe that the inflection point of high export growth has come, and my country's foreign trade imports and exports are under pressure.
According to the research report of Zhongtai Securities, the growth rate of my country's exports in August was lower than that of July. On the one hand, the base rose significantly in the same period last year, and the high base effect suppressed export growth this month; on the other hand, the overseas economy slowed down significantly. Due to the backlog of delivery orders due to the epidemic, it may have been cleared, and it is difficult to support the high level of external demand.
However, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that my country's exports will continue to remain resilient and imports will gradually improve, but the growth rate is expected to remain low. "In the next few months, my country's foreign trade will show strong exports, weak imports and a trade surplus high profile."
Europe expands procurement of heating appliances
But there is one market that needs special attention, and that is the European market. Speaking of this, many people are puzzled. The European Central Bank has unprecedentedly raised the three key interest rates by 75 basis points at a time, and the economic growth forecast has also been lowered. So what opportunities does this market have?
You must know that under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other factors, there has been an energy crisis in Europe. After a long scorching summer, the severe winter is approaching. How should the European people survive? As we all know, when there is danger, there is opportunity. The recent shortage of energy in Europe is stimulating the demand for energy-saving and heating appliances.
According to Eurostat data, as of July 2022, the annual growth rate of EU energy price inflation will reach 38.3%, of which the annual growth rate of natural gas and electricity price inflation will reach 52.2% and 31.1% respectively. Since August, energy prices have continued to grow rapidly.
According to the data of the European Electricity Exchange, the average price of the European power system was 462.1 euros/MWh on August 30, an increase of 6 times compared with the beginning of the year; on August 26, the closing price of the Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures was 339.195 euros/MWh , an increase of up to 5 times compared to the beginning of the year.
According to data released by the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, since the beginning of this year, the number of heating appliances such as electric heaters and electric blankets exported from China to Europe has surged.
It is reported that the European market has always been the growth engine of China's home appliance exports. In the past six years, the growth has continued to improve. In 2021, the export value will be 29.54 billion US dollars, an increase of 34.4%, accounting for 28.3% of China's total home appliance industry exports.
From the perspective of sub-categories of home appliances, the growing categories mainly include air conditioners, electric water heaters, electric heaters, electric blankets, and hair dryers. The cumulative export volume from January to July was US$1.99 billion, US$130 million, US$490 million, 33.4 million US dollars, 160 million US dollars, of which electric blankets lead other categories with a growth rate of 97%.
A person from the Information Consulting Department of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association believes that these high-growth categories have the effect of temperature regulation, indicating that European consumers are obviously expanding the purchase of heating products to prepare for the upcoming winter.
The export potential of air source heat pump is huge
In addition, air source heat pumps using green energy have shown explosive growth and performed very well, continuing the high-speed growth trend in 2021 as a whole.
China is currently the main supplier of air source heat pumps in Europe, accounting for 60% of the market; the market in many European countries has experienced explosive growth. In the first half of the year, China's exports of air source heat pumps to Bulgaria, Poland, Italy and Spain increased by 614%. %, 373%, 198%, 71%.
It is reported that in 2021, China will export more than 2 million air source heat pumps to Europe. The industry is optimistic that the export volume of China's air source heat pump products will exceed 10 million units in the future. The United States, Canada, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom and many other European and American countries have issued powerful subsidy policies for the promotion of air source heat pumps.
The European subsidy for the installation of an air source heat pump can reach up to 5,000 euros and be implemented in batches.
Industry online analysis believes that due to the current global demand for air source heat pump products, it is expected that air source heat pump exports will maintain a growth rate of at least 50% in 2022.
Cinda Securities estimates that the market space for household heat pumps in the European market will reach 37.73 million units in the future. With the addition of updated and commercial and industrial heat pump demand, it is estimated that the long-term market demand for heat pumps in the European market will exceed 40 million units in the future.