四季度通常是中国外贸传统旺季，然而今年受疫情以及世界经济低迷影响，中国外贸特别是出口似乎“旺季不旺”。
The fourth quarter is usually the traditional peak season for China's foreign trade. However, affected by the epidemic and the downturn of the world economy this year, China's foreign trade, especially its exports, seems to be "not in peak season".
据官方数据，10月中国进出口总值以人民币计同比增速为6.9%，连续三个月下滑。如以美元计，10月中国进出口总值同比下降0.4%，远低于9月3.4%的增速。其中，出口同比下降0.3%，而9月增速为5.7%。
According to official data, the year-on-year growth rate of China's total import and export value in RMB in October was 6.9%, falling for three consecutive months. In dollar terms, China's total import and export value fell 0.4% year on year in October, much lower than the 3.4% growth rate in September. Among them, exports fell 0.3% year on year, while the growth rate in September was 5.7%.
眼下，从中央到地方，一场“订单保卫战”已经打响。
At present, from the central to the local, a "order defense war" has begun.
订单去哪了？
Where did the order go?
外贸很大程度上取决于国际市场冷暖。眼下中国外贸特别是出口遇到的一大难题，正是外需走弱、订单不足。
Foreign trade largely depends on the temperature of the international market. At present, China's foreign trade, especially export, is facing a major problem, which is the weakening of foreign demand and insufficient orders.
中国商务部新闻发言人束珏婷坦言，当前外需不足成为“突出挑战”。中国贸促会也表示，企业订单不足的问题尤为突出，进入四季度外贸进出口进一步承压。
Shu Jueting, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China, said frankly that the current shortage of foreign demand has become a "prominent challenge". China Council for the Promotion of International Trade also said that the problem of insufficient orders of enterprises was particularly prominent, and the import and export of foreign trade was under further pressure in the fourth quarter.
订单为何少了？
Why are there fewer orders?
中国人民大学经济研究所联席所长毛振华认为，当前世界经济整体低迷，美欧等发达经济体通货膨胀水平仍然较高，居民购买力受到抑制，加之其他经济体生产能力和供给能力逐步恢复，因此海外对中国商品的需求不及以往强劲。
Mao Zhenhua, co director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that the current global economy is in a downturn, the inflation level in developed economies such as the United States and Europe is still high, and the purchasing power of residents is restrained. In addition, the production capacity and supply capacity of other economies are gradually restored, so overseas demand for Chinese goods is not as strong as before.
此外，受疫情影响，中国外贸企业难以及时赴境外参加各类展会，这一定程度上也限制了企业开拓新客户、承接新订单。
In addition, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to attend various overseas exhibitions in a timely manner, which also restricts enterprises to expand new customers and undertake new orders to some extent.
中国商务部原副部长魏建国表示，线下展示商品、沟通洽谈，对外贸企业保订单、争订单不可或缺。眼下欧美民众因通货膨胀高企手头拮据，看似会影响需求，但对以性价比高见长的中国商品来说，正是占领市场的绝佳机遇。此时，企业只有真正“走出去”，才能抓住机遇、赢得主动。
Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that offline display of goods and communication and negotiation are indispensable for foreign trade enterprises to guarantee and compete for orders. At present, the European and American people are in financial straits due to high inflation, which seems to affect demand, but for Chinese goods with high cost performance ratio, it is a great opportunity to occupy the market. At this time, only by truly "going global" can enterprises seize opportunities and win initiative.
订单保卫战，开打！
Order defense, fight!
订单对外贸企业至关重要，稳外贸很大程度上就是稳订单。针对订单不足这一难题，中国已在“对症下药”。
Order is very important for foreign trade enterprises. To stabilize foreign trade is to stabilize orders to a large extent. In response to the problem of insufficient orders, China has been "tailoring the remedy to the case".
——持续深耕周边市场
——Continuously cultivate surrounding markets
目前，东盟稳居中国第一大贸易伙伴。据官方数据，今年前10个月中国与东盟贸易总值同比增长15.8%，高于同期中国外贸整体增速6.3个百分点，其中中国对东盟出口增速高达22.7%。
At present, ASEAN is China's largest trading partner. According to official data, the total trade value between China and ASEAN in the first 10 months of this year increased by 15.8% year-on-year, 6.3 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China's foreign trade in the same period, of which the growth rate of China's exports to ASEAN was as high as 22.7%.
近日，中国与东盟国家领导人已共同宣布启动中国—东盟自贸区3.0版谈判。中方透露，双方将围绕数字经济、绿色经济等共同感兴趣的领域展开谈判。此外，中方还表示将继续帮助有需要的东盟成员提升《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）协定实施能力。
Recently, leaders of China and ASEAN countries have jointly announced the launch of negotiations on the China ASEAN Free Trade Area version 3.0. China revealed that the two sides will conduct negotiations around areas of common interest such as digital economy and green economy. In addition, China also said that it would continue to help ASEAN members in need to improve the implementation capacity of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所研究员高凌云称，在地缘政治紧张局势升级背景下，欧美市场需求疲软态势明年有可能持续，对中国外贸造成冲击。用好用足RCEP，进一步释放与第一大贸易伙伴东盟的合作潜力，有助于对冲欧美市场疲软对中国外贸的不利影响。
Gao Lingyun, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that, against the background of escalating geopolitical tensions, weak demand in European and American markets is likely to continue next year, which will impact China's foreign trade. Make full use of RCEP, further release the cooperation potential with ASEAN, the largest trading partner, and help to hedge the adverse impact of weak European and American markets on China's foreign trade.
——大力扶持跨境电商
——Vigorously support cross-border e-commerce
疫情期间，跨境电商对中国稳外贸发挥了重要作用。据官方数据，2021年中国跨境电商进出口规模约1.92万亿元人民币，同比增长18.6%。
During the epidemic, cross-border e-commerce played an important role in stabilizing China's foreign trade. According to official data, the import and export scale of China's cross-border e-commerce in 2021 will be about 1.92 trillion yuan, up 18.6% year on year.
上月，中国跨境电商综合试验区再度扩围，总数已达100多个。与中国签署电商合作谅解备忘录的国家最近也增加到27个。
Last month, China's cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones were expanded again, with a total of more than 100. The number of countries that have signed memorandums of understanding on e-commerce cooperation with China has recently increased to 27.
不少外贸大省也在加大力度支持跨境电商。山东日前称，要梳理在手订单充足、带动作用强的骨干外贸企业名单，确保企业正常生产、保证履约；支持企业上线亚马逊、阿里国际站、eBay等知名平台，扩大本土特色产品出口。
Many large foreign trade provinces are also strengthening their support for cross-border e-commerce. Shandong recently said that it is necessary to sort out the list of backbone foreign trade enterprises with sufficient orders in hand and strong driving force, so as to ensure normal production and guarantee the performance of the enterprises; Support enterprises to launch well-known platforms such as Amazon, Alibaba International Station and eBay, and expand the export of local products.
——助力企业出国参展
——Assist enterprises to participate in overseas exhibitions
据中国贸促会数据，目前已完成首批2022年11月至2023年2月期间的15个出国经贸展览项目试点审批，分布在德国、美国等8个国家，涉及纺织、汽配、体育用品、电子、消费品等领域。这些领域大多涉及中国优势出口产品，将使相关企业出口获得实实在在的利好。
According to the data of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, the pilot approval of the first batch of 15 overseas trade and economic exhibition projects from November 2022 to February 2023 has been completed, which are distributed in 8 countries, including Germany and the United States, involving textile, auto parts, sports goods, electronics, consumer goods and other fields. Most of these fields involve China's advantageous export products, which will enable relevant enterprises to obtain real benefits in export.
魏建国表示，随着稳增长政策效应逐渐释放，预计今年四季度中国外贸增速仍有望实现小幅抬升。
Wei Jianguo said that with the gradual release of the effect of the policy of stabilizing growth, China's foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to achieve a small increase.
外贸仍有诸多有利条件
There are still many favorable conditions for foreign trade
近期，中国外贸单月同比增速逐月下滑。魏建国认为，单月外贸增速下降并不代表中国外贸面临困境。相反，中国外贸保持稳定健康发展仍有诸多有利条件。
Recently, the year-on-year growth rate of China's foreign trade has declined month by month. Wei Jianguo believed that the decline in foreign trade growth in a single month does not mean that China's foreign trade is facing difficulties. On the contrary, there are still many favorable conditions for China's foreign trade to maintain stable and healthy development.
其一，外需“危中有机”。目前世界经济整体低迷，欧美等发达经济体通货膨胀依然高企，民众购买力受到一定影响。这看似将抑制外需，但对性价比高的中国商品而言实际上是难得的市场机遇。
First, external demand is "medium and organic". At present, the world economy is in a downturn as a whole, inflation in developed economies such as Europe and the United States is still high, and people's purchasing power is affected to some extent. This may seem to restrain external demand, but it is actually a rare market opportunity for Chinese goods with high cost performance ratio.
中国一批拥有传统优势且国际认可度较高的出口产品，如纺织品、箱包、电子产品等，将迎来良好出口时机。
A number of Chinese export products with traditional advantages and high international recognition, such as textiles, bags and electronic products, will welcome a good opportunity for export.
其二，民营企业活力进一步凸显。据官方数据，今年前10个月民营企业进出口17.44万亿元人民币，同比增长14.4%，占中国外贸总值的50.4%，比去年同期提升2.2个百分点。其中，民营企业出口11.87万亿元，同比增长19%，高于同期中国出口增速6个百分点。
Secondly, the vitality of private enterprises is further highlighted. According to official data, the import and export of private enterprises in the first 10 months of this year was 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14.4% year on year, accounting for 50.4% of China's total foreign trade, 2.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the export of private enterprises was 11.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%, 6 percentage points higher than China's export growth in the same period.
中国民营企业大多有丰富市场经验，创新能力强。民营企业进出口快速增长，将为中国稳外贸提供有力支撑。
Most private enterprises in China have rich market experience and strong innovation ability. The rapid growth of imports and exports of private enterprises will provide strong support for China's stable foreign trade.
魏建国表示，综合上述两方面有利条件，预计四季度中国外贸增速仍有望实现小幅抬升。
Wei Jianguo said that, based on the above two favorable conditions, it is expected that China's foreign trade growth in the fourth quarter is still expected to achieve a small increase.